Florida State
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
62  Harry Mulenga SR 31:40
356  Brandon Shemonia SR 32:38
380  Michael Callegari JR 32:41
423  Steven Cross FR 32:47
428  Ibrahim Ahmed SR 32:48
521  Michael Hall JR 32:57
619  Bryce Kelley JR 33:09
654  Grant Nykaza SR 33:12
1,082  Zainelabdin Fator JR 33:52
1,123  Tyson Murray FR 33:55
1,139  Will Simons FR 33:56
1,530  Matthew Magee JR 34:27
2,316  Hunter Scott FR 35:48
National Rank #48 of 312
South Region Rank #3 of 40
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 16.0%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.1%


Regional Champion 0.2%
Top 5 in Regional 98.1%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Harry Mulenga Brandon Shemonia Michael Callegari Steven Cross Ibrahim Ahmed Michael Hall Bryce Kelley Grant Nykaza Zainelabdin Fator Tyson Murray Will Simons
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/30 835 31:35 32:21 32:56 32:49 33:27 33:14 33:40 34:36
FSU Invitational 10/07 944 32:40 33:06 32:40 32:41 32:42 33:27 34:01 33:10 33:35 33:21
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 737 31:12 32:31 32:30 33:18 32:53 32:23
Alabama Crimson Classic 10/14 1224 33:35 33:46 34:06
ACC Championships 10/28 764 31:11 32:25 32:40 32:43 32:56 32:54 33:55 34:10
South Region Championships 11/11 852 31:44 33:10 32:35 32:49 32:43 34:40





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 16.0% 28.4 699 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 2.5 3.4 3.5 2.7
Region Championship 100% 3.3 112 0.2 13.9 51.4 25.9 6.8 1.6 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Harry Mulenga 86.5% 66.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6
Brandon Shemonia 16.3% 192.5
Michael Callegari 16.2% 194.4
Steven Cross 16.0% 206.9
Ibrahim Ahmed 16.0% 205.5
Michael Hall 16.1% 219.5
Bryce Kelley 16.0% 230.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Harry Mulenga 4.9 5.3 9.6 13.3 12.6 10.8 11.1 8.6 7.1 5.4 3.9 2.4 2.7 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Brandon Shemonia 23.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.6 2.9 3.8 4.8 4.1 4.0 4.0 5.2 3.7 3.8 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.1
Michael Callegari 25.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.3 3.5 4.6 4.6 4.2 3.8 4.2
Steven Cross 28.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.0 4.2 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.7 3.1
Ibrahim Ahmed 28.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.7 1.3 1.8 2.9 3.4 3.7 3.7 4.1 3.7 4.2 4.4
Michael Hall 33.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.1
Bryce Kelley 42.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.2% 100.0% 0.2 0.2 1
2 13.9% 100.0% 13.9 13.9 2
3 51.4% 3.7% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.2 49.5 1.9 3
4 25.9% 0.2% 0.1 25.9 0.1 4
5 6.8% 6.8 5
6 1.6% 1.6 6
7 0.2% 0.2 7
8 0.1% 0.1 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
Total 100% 16.0% 0.2 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.2 84.1 14.0 2.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Eastern Kentucky 82.3% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina St. 81.2% 1.0 0.8
Princeton 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Texas A&M 43.0% 1.0 0.4
Illinois 32.4% 1.0 0.3
Minnesota 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Columbia 1.7% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Alabama 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Baylor 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 2.9
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 6.0